The crisis in the Middle East is likely to have terrible consequences for Israel, its neighbours and U.S. foreign policy. Israel’s
military response to Hamas’s attacks will surely trigger outrage across the Middle East, fueling jihadism, and might even
lead to wars with Hezbollah and Iran. The U.S. has a vested interest in preserving stability in the Persian Gulf, but the
Israel-Hamas war will lead to a more unstable region.
At the same time, Russia, far from being a serious threat to the U.S., should be its ally to contain China. However, the
American-backed Ukraine campaign has foolishly pushed Russia closer to China, which is a violation of balance-of-power
politics 101. The U.S. is now so deeply involved in Ukraine and has so committed its credibility to defeating Russia and
preserving Ukrainian sovereignty that Washington will surely continue backing Kyiv for the foreseeable future.
Making matters worse, the new Middle East conflict will also distract America from East Asia where the U.S. has been
working to put together a balancing coalition to contain a truly serious strategic threat. In that intensifying security
competition, Australians have a deep-seated interest in working with the U.S. to deter China.
For Beijing, the best outcome would be if Washington remains deeply committed and frustrated in Eastern Europe and
the Middle East, so the U.S. can’t fully pivot to East Asia.
* John Mearsheimer lecture, followed by Q&A with Hon Alexander Downer and Tom Switzer.